Originally published on June 8, 2006. View Original Site »
by Jeff Frank, Contributing Editor - The Sports Network
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Its not Detroit vs. San Antonio, rather the next best thing. The Heat and Mavericks square off for the NBA Championship beginning Thursday night in Dallas.
Both clubs played tremendous basketball (12-5 - playoffs) to get to this point, but only one team will win it. Can Shaquille ONeal and Dwyane Wade bring Miami its first ever title? Will Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry keep the NBA Championship trophy in Texas?
Ball possession will be extremely important in this series. Both teams finished in the top three in rebounding margin during the regular season, so there might not be enough to separate the two squads. Dallas is just shy of +7 in that category in the playoffs, while Miami is a +3. Whichever club wins the rebounding battle, will win this series.
However, if its Miami, theres still one sticking point that has to be addressed in order for them to become champions - hitting its free throws. The Heat shot 70% during the regular season and a shade lower (68%) so far in the post-season. The Mavericks, on the other hand, hit 78% from the line in their 82 games and a very impressive 82% in the playoffs. Expect Dallas will to continue to foul Shaq in tight games, so the “Diesel” must improve on his 40% post-season foul shooting.
The all-time head-to-head series has been an intriguing one. Dallas won the first eight meetings, but Miami came back to take 18 of the next 19. The Mavs have since owned the Heat, winning 10 of the 12 games played this decade, including both contests this year..
Dallas went into Miami earlier in the year and won, 103-90. However, Shaq was not in the lineup. In the second meeting, the Mavs shot 56% from the field and outscored the Heat by 23 points in the second half to win, 112-76.
Inside the Vegas numbers shows Dallas is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS vs. Miami the last five seasons. The 6-4 ATS mark is a bit deceiving, as the Mavericks have covered five straight. Seven of the 10 games went OVER the total, but both games this year went UNDER.
In the playoffs, Dallas is 12-5 both SU and ATS, including an amazing 8-1 ATS road record. Miami is 12-5 SU and 10-6 ATS, with a 5-3 ATS away mark.
The Mavs are 9-8 to the OVER, but four of their last five went UNDER the number. The Heat are 10-7 to the UNDER, including their last six.
Dallas is the favorite to take home the crown. According to www.BetCRIS.com, one must wager $151 to win $100 on the Mavs, while those who like the Heat only need to bet $100 to win $131.
I am leaning to the Mavericks in seven, but a better way to make some money is by betting the UNDER. Stay away from game one, as both teams will be fresh off the lengthy layoff and points will be easier to come by. However, jump on the UNDER as the series progresses even if the total number continues to go down.
In the Heat-Pistons series, the number went from 188 in game one all the way down to 179 for game six and every single contest went UNDER. So dont be afraid if the total drops significantly as the series evolves.
Dallas defense is nowhere near Detroits, but the team did hold its opponents to only 93 ppg. this season, down from as 97 ppg. last year. We all know how well the Heat can defend, as they held their opposition to 44% FG shooting during the regular season and 43% in the playoffs.
Some of www.BetCRIS.com prop bets are out for game one. One very enticing one is “free throws made by both teams.” The number is set at 41.5. The UNDER is the slight choice at -120 to -110 for the OVER. Despite Shaqs problems from the line, it seems very plausible that both teams will combine for at least 50, especially with the amount of rest each team has heading into the game. Miami averaged 24 in its series with New Jersey, while Dallas hit for 24 in the seven games vs. San Antonio.
Another intriguing bet is “total rebounds made by both teams” with the number set at 79.5. The UNDER is the prohibitive choice at -130. The OVER is set at even money. The last time these two teams played there were only 64 rebounds in the game. However, only one player saw over 30 minutes of action and that was Dwyane Wade. The benches will not be used as much for game one of the NBA Finals. Also, there were 75 total rebounds in the first meeting this season and ONeal did not even play. Definitely take the OVER.
What will the largest margin of deficit be at any point of the game? My guess would be no higher than 10 or 11. The folks at www.BetCRIS.com set the largest lead at 15.5, so take the UNDER, despite having to lay $130 to win $100. Its not like Dallas or Miami is playing a six or seven seed. These were two of the top four or five teams in the league for most of the season.
Theres even a prop bet for “total three point shots made by both teams beyond the three point line.” Miami averaged less than five per game against Detroit, but this series will not be played in the 167-181 range. Pat Rileys club popped in eight per game vs. both New Jersey and Chicago. The Mavericks averaged four per contest against San Antonio, and if they accomplish that number, that would put the total at 12, a shade higher than the 11.5 set by www.BetCRIS.com.
Another reason to take the OVER is that Dallas converted at least eight bombs from downtown in each of the two games vs. Miami this season. Its interesting to note that the UNDER is actually favored at -130, while the OVER is even money.
For all other prop bets, check out www.BetCRIS.com.
This post-season has been the NBAs best in quite a long time. Lets hope the Finals are just as exciting as the three previous playoff rounds with Dirk Nowitzki holding the trophy after game seven.
Published: 2006-06-08
Bettor's enjoyed a good week with many favorites winning, especially in baseball. Sunday alone in baseball there were 13 defined favorites which won, so with results like that bookmakers generally have a tough time of it.
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